Ask what keeps 2.2 billion people offline and most answers describe a map: places the network has not reached yet.

The International Telecommunication Union publishes both numbers. They do not fit that answer.

The key point

96% of the world's population is covered by a 3G network or better. The uncovered 4% is around 312 million people.

2.2 billion people are offline.

Those two numbers are seven times apart. Whatever is keeping most offline people offline, it is not the absence of a network.

The coverage gapThe blank spots are real, and small

Small does not mean easy. The last stretch is the one that has barely moved.

  • Coverage by 3G or better passed 90% back in 2018. Since then the global gain has been six percentage pointsseven years for six points.
  • The uncovered areas are exclusively rural. Not mostly. Exclusively.
  • Almost half of the people without a mobile broadband network are in Africa.
  • The widest gap is rural areas of small island developing states, where 36% of the population still has no mobile broadband access.

The ITU attaches a deadline to this. It notes that in the least developed countries, 12% of the population still has no mobile broadband, falling short of Sustainable Development Goal target 9.c, which aimed at universal and affordable internet access in those countries by 2020. The report is dated 2025.

The subtractionThen who are the others?

Two published figures, one operation. It is worth doing carefully, because the result is the whole subject.

At least 1.9 billion

2.2 billion offline, minus around 312 million with no network at all, leaves at least 1.9 billion people who live under a mobile broadband network and are not online.

This subtraction is ours, not a figure from the report. We write “at least” on purpose: the two numbers count slightly different populations, so the true figure cannot be smaller, only larger.

Six times more people are held back by something other than the absence of a network than by the absence of a network. The report names what comes first among those somethings, and it is not a mystery.

AffordabilityThe ITU does not measure a price

It measures a share of income. That single methodological choice is what makes the numbers readable at all, a sum in dollars means nothing across 200 economies.

1.4%
the median price of the mobile broadband basket, as a share of gross national income per capita, down from 1.5%.
ITU, Facts and Figures 2025
22×
what subscribers in low-income economies spend on it, relative to those in high-income economies.
ITU, Facts and Figures 2025
130/205
economies meeting the affordability target for the mobile basket. One in three does not.
ITU, Facts and Figures 2025

The target is not the ITU's invention either. The Broadband Commission for Sustainable Development set it: broadband access in developing countries should cost no more than 2% of gross national income per capita, by 2025. There is a line, it has a date, and the date is now.

The number that stops the argument. Among low- and middle-income economies, only 54, roughly four in ten, meet the affordability target for even one of the two baskets. And where a fixed broadband subscription is available in a low-income country, it costs the equivalent of more than a quarter of the average income.

One word, two realitiesWhat “covered” hides

There is a second layer under the first one. Being covered is recorded as a yes or a no, and the yes contains an enormous range.

  • 4G reaches 93% of the world's population, and 56% in low-income countries.
  • 5G reaches 84% of people in high-income countries and 4% in low-income countries. In those countries it covers 9% of the urban population and is, in the ITU's words, essentially unavailable in rural areas.
  • Worldwide, 4G covers 99% of urban areas and 84% of rural ones. In low-income countries, only 38% of rural inhabitants have 4G.

So the map that most people picture, connected countries, blank ones, is the wrong map twice over. The blank areas are small and rural. And inside the covered 96%, the word covers something that ranges from a 5G network to a signal that predates the smartphone.

Which is why the ITU stopped counting connections and started counting whether a connection is worth having. Its target is not universal connectivity but universal and meaningful connectivity, quality, price, anytime, anywhere.

QuestionsFrequently asked questions

How much of the world is covered by a mobile network?

96%, counting 3G and above, according to the ITU, the United Nations agency for telecommunications. The remaining 4% is around 312 million people. That is far fewer than the number of people offline, which is 2.2 billion.

So why are 2.2 billion people offline?

Because coverage and use are two different things. Subtract the 312 million uncovered people from the 2.2 billion offline and at least 1.9 billion are left who live under a network and do not use it, that is our subtraction from two ITU figures, not a figure from the report. The report itself names price as a major barrier.

How much does internet access cost?

The ITU does not measure a price in dollars but a share of income. The median price of the data-only mobile broadband basket fell from 1.5 to 1.4 per cent of gross national income per capita. But subscribers in low-income economies spend about 22 times more of their income on it than those in high-income economies.

Is there an official affordability target?

Yes. The Broadband Commission for Sustainable Development set a target that the cost of broadband access in developing countries should not exceed two per cent of GNI per capita by 2025. Of the 205 economies with data for the mobile basket, 130 meet the target. One in three does not.

Where are the areas with genuinely no network?

In rural areas, exclusively, the ITU says so without qualification. Almost half of the people without access to a mobile broadband network are in Africa. The widest gap is in rural areas of small island developing states, where 36% of the population still lacks access.

Does “covered” mean the same thing everywhere?

No, and that is the second layer. 4G reaches 93% of the world's population, but only 56% in low-income countries. 5G reaches 84% of people in high-income countries and 4% in low-income countries. Two equally “covered” people are not covered by the same thing.

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